In 1982 the Hebrew-language magazine Kivunim (Directions),
the official organ of the World Zionist Organization
published an important article entitled, "A Strategy for
Israel in the Nineteen Eighties". The Editor of Kivunim is
Yoram Beck, Head of Publications, Department of Information,
of the World Zionist Organization. Also on the Editorial Committee
of Kivunim is Amnon Hadary, a member of the Palmach
during the 1948 atrocities.
professor of organic chemistry at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem,
and chairman of the Israeli League for Human and Civil Rights
translated the article into English and wrote the following foreword
to it. It was published in 1982 as a pamphlet by the Association
of Arab-American University graduates. Professor Shahak
The following essay represents, in my opinion, the accurate and
detailed plan of the present Zionist regime for the Middle East which
is based on the division of the whole area into small states, and the
dissolution of all the existing Arab states.
I will comment on the military aspect of this plan in a concluding note. Here I want to
draw the attention of the readers to several important points:
1 . The idea that all the Arab
states should be broken down, by Israel, into small units, occurs
again and again in Israeli strategic thinking.
For example, Ze'ev Schiff, the military correspondent of Ha'aretz (and probably the most
knowledgeable in Israel, on this topic) writes about the
'best' that can happen for Israeli interests in Iraq :
"The dissolution of Iraq into a Shi'ite state, a Sunni state and the
separation of the Kurdish part" (Ha'aretz, 2/6/1982). Actually this
aspect of the plan is very old.
2. The strong connection with
neo-Conservative thought in the USA is very prominent, especially in
the author's notes.
But, while lip service is paid to the idea of the
'defense of the West' from Soviet power, the real aim of
the author, and of the present Israeli establishment is clear: To
make an imperial Israel into a world power.
3. It is obvious that much of
the relevant data, both in the notes and in the text, is garbled or
omitted, such as the financial help of the US to Israel. Much of it
is pure fantasy.
But, the plan is not to be regarded as not influential or as not
capable of realization for a short time.
Kivunim's plan states that the Arab
states are fragmented.
In the long run the Arab Muslim world will be unable to
exist within its present framework in the areas around us without
having to go through genuine revolutionary changes.
Arab World is built like a temporary house of cards put together
by foreigners (France and Britain in the Nineteen Twenties),
without the wishes and desires of the inhabitants having been
taken into account.
It was arbitrarily divided into 19 states, all
made of combinations of minorities and ethnic groups which are
hostile to one another, so that every Arab Moslem state nowadays
faces ethnic social destruction from within, and in some a civil
war is already raging.
In Egypt there is a Sunni Muslim majority
facing a large minority of Christians which is dominant in upper
Egypt: some 7 million of them, so that even Sadat, in his speech
on May 8, expressed the fear that they will want a state of their
own. something like a 'second' Christian Lebanon in Egypt.
Syria is fundamentally no different
from Lebanon, except in the strong military regime which rules it.
But the real civil war taking place nowadays between the Sunni
majority and the Shi'ite Alawi ruling minority (a mere 12 % of the
population) testifies to the severity of the domestie trouble.
Iraq is, once again, no different in
essence from its neighbors, although its majority is Shi'ite and
the ruling minority Sunni.
In addition there is a large Kurdish minority in the north,
and if it weren't for the strength of the ruling regime, the army
and the oil revenues, Iraq's future state would be no different
than that of Lebanon in the past or of Syria today.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and North Yemen:
All the Gulf principalities and Saudi Arabia are built upon a delicate
house of sand in which there is only oil.
In Kuwait, the Kuwaitis
constitute only a quarter of the population. In Bahrain, the
Shi'ites are the majority but are deprived of power. In the United
Arab Emirates, Shi'ites are once again the majority but the Sunnis
are in power. The same is true of Oman and North Yemen. Even in
the Marxist South Yemen there is a sizable Shi'ite minority. In
Saudi Arabia half the population is foreign, Egyptian and
Yemenite, but a Saudi minority holds power.
Jordan is in reality Palestinian, ruled
by a TransJordanian Bedouin minority, but most of the army and
certainly the bureaucracy is now Palestinian. As a matter of fact
Amman is as Palestinian as Nablus.
plan by Kivunim
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISRAEL TO IMPLEMENT ITS
A sad and very
stormy situation surrounds Israel and creates challenges for it,
problems, risks but also far-reaching opportunities for the first
time since 1967.
Chances are that opportunities missed at that
time will become achievable in the Eighties to an extent and along
dimensions which we cannot even imagine today. The
'peace' policy and the return of territories, through
a dependence upon the US, precludes the realization of the new
option created for us.
Since 1967, all the governments of Israel
have tied our national aims down to narrow political needs, on the
one hand, and on the other to destructive opinions at home which
neutralized our capacities both at home and abroad. Failing to
take steps towards the Arab population in the new territories,
acquired in the course of a war forced upon us, is the major
strategic error committed by Israel on the morning after the Six
Day War. >
We could have saved ourselves all the bitter and
dangerous conflict since then if we had given Jordan to the
Palestinians who live west of the Jordan river.
By doing that we
would have neutralized the Palestinian problem which we nowadays
face, and to which we have found solutions that are really no
solutions at all, such as territorial compromise or autonomy which
amount, in fact, to the same thing. Today we suddenly face immense
opportunities for transforming the situation thoroughly and this
we must do in the coming decade otherwise we shall not survive as
Israel's plans to fragment the Arab
States are outlined :
Egypt is divided and torn apart into many foci of authority.
If Egypt falls apart, countries like Libya, Sudan or even the more
distant states will not continue to exist in their present form
and will join the downfall and dissolution of Egypt. The vision of
a Christian Coptic State in upper Egypt alongside a number of weak
states with very localized power and without a centralized
govemment as to date, is the key to a historical development which
was only set back by the peace agreement but which seems
inevitable in the long run.
Lebanon's total dissolution into five provinces
serves as a precedent for the entire Arab world, including Egypt,
Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following
that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into
ethnically or religiously unique areas such as in Lebanon, is
Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run,
while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves
as the primary short term target.
Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its
ethnic religious structure, into several states such as in present
day Lebanon so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its
coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in
Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will
set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the
Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the
guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and
that aim is already within our reach today.
Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally
torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel's
targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that
Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is
Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An
Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at
home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front
Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us
in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important
aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in
It is possible that the present
Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.
Saudi Arabia: The entire Arabian peninsula is a natural
candidate for dissolution due to internal and external pressures,
and the matter is inevitable especially in Saudi Arabia.
Regardless of whether its economic might based on oil remains
intact or whether it is diminished in the long run, the internal
rifts and breakdowns are a clear and natural development in light
of the present political structure.
Judea, Samaria and the Galilee are our
sole guarantee for national existence
There is no chance that Jordan will continue to exist in its
present structure for a long time, and Israel's policy, both
in war and in peace, ought to be directed at the liquidation of
Jordan under the present regime< and the transfer of power to the
Changing the regime east of the river will
also cause the termination of the problem of the territories
densely populated with Arabs (Palestinians) west of the Jordan. The Palestine-autonomy plan ought to be rejected, as well as any
compromise or division of the territories.
It is not possible to go on living in this
country in the present situation without separating the two
nations, the Arabs to Jordan and the Jews to the areas west of the
river. Genuine co-existence and peace will reign over the land
only when the Arabs understand that without Jewish rule between
the Jordan and the sea they will have neither existence nor
security. A nation of their own and security will be theirs only
It should be clear, under any future
political situation or military constellation, that the solution
of the problem of the indigenous Arabs will come only when they
recognize the existence of Israel in secure borders up to the
Jordan river and beyond it.
Judea, Samaria and the Galilee are our
sole guarantee for national existence, and if we do not become the
majority in the mountain areas, we shall not rule in the country
and we shall be like the Crusaders, who lost this country which
was not theirs anyhow, and in which they were foreigners to begin